Consumers are continually changing their consumption of dairy products. Depending on the latest trends, not only is the type of dairy product they consume changing, but the way they eat the product is different.

Insights on these trends can be found in the latest “Your Dairy Checkoff Podcast” episode. Host Val Lavigne, a New York dairy farmer, and National Dairy Board Member, unveils a deeper look at dairy sales over the years in a conversation with Madlyn Daley, Senior Vice President of strategic Insights & Evaluation at Dairy Management Inc., and Peter Vitaliano, Vice President, Economic Policy and Market Research for National Milk Producers Federation.

U.S. Dairy Sales Now & Then

Over the last couple of years, dairy sales have seen immense change.  Sales are up for nearly all dairy products, and they are seeing a recovery occurring within the marketplace. Daley said that with only a few months of data in 2024, sales are comparable with 2023 results. Cheese represents 29% of the total domestic sales of dairy products, which Daley calls the “growth engine” of the dairy industry.

Milk sales have declined for decades, but in recent years, sales have leveled off at retail. In the first few months of 2024, the market saw a slight increase in milk sales. Lactose-free milk is driving this growth at 8% and is benefiting from its higher levels of protein and calcium.

Whole milk represents almost half of the fluid sales category due to new consumer perspectives and new buyers. “A lot of the investment that dairy farmers have been making in terms of whole fat science, is to help change the mindset of health professionals with how they look at whole fat milk,” Daley said. Yogurt is another category that Daley highlights as people search for gut health foods.

Over the last century, U.S. consumers have made major changes in their consumption of dairy products, Vitaliano said. "Cheese consumption per capita in this country was one-tenth what it is now,” he said. Fluid milk consumption per capita peaked in World War II, and since the late 1950s, it has been on a downward trend.

Butter is another product that has changed dramatically over time. Vitaliano said that wartime rationing negatively impacted butter when consumers saved money by turning to margarine. For years, the science about consuming dietary fat was negative, holding butter to 4.5 pounds per capita. Checkoff-led research on whole fats has helped shift perceptions, recovering butter to 6 pounds per capita in 2020.

U.S.-produced dairy is also finding a home in international markets. Within the past 30 years, there has been growing interest in dairy, especially in countries that are developing middle classes with people having increased disposable incomes. Unlike domestic market, U.S. dairy faces competition in the world market from Europe and New Zealand. “As long as we can continue to grow our exports, we are able to sustain a somewhat faster growth than the domestic market alone would permit,” Vitaliano said.

New Product Trends

An exciting trend is cottage cheese attracting interest from younger consumers. Over the past year, a trend occurred on social media with numerous TikTok recipes highlighting cottage cheese becoming available. In terms of households who buy this product, 40% are baby boomers, whereas Generation Z and Millennials make up about 35%.

“Over the last year, we've brought in 3 million more households to the cottage cheese market,” Daley said. “Volume sales have grown by about 13% over the last 52 weeks."

Future Product and Sale Trends

Vitaliano is optimistic that dairy will continue to grow.

Compared to plant-based alternatives, dairy is a dominant factor, holding 90% of the share in the “milk” category which includes alternatives.

Daley and Vitaliano predict future growth for cheese, yogurt and butter. There will also be further growth in exports, gaining market share from some of dairy’s competitors.

Dairy fits into a proactive consumer’s diet. "Dairy is ingrained in American culture,” Daley said. “It's a big part of the habits, the routines that we have on a day-to-day basis. I think that there's more opportunity for us to grow in some of those health spaces.”

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